So propably you’re subscriber of, website run by Gary Savage – or maybe you are thinking about becoming a subscriber. Well, read my blog and i think you will change your mind. You think he is such a great trader ? well truth is far,far, FAR away from that. In a fact – in long term he is WRONG about literaly EVERY market – gold, dollar, stock market. It’s easy to track his “record”, on his you can read archive post to check his achievements. I dont know why people dont do that ?! Its easy to find out that since 2011 – in a long term he is WRONG WRONG WRONG and WRONG in his predictions. In a short term – yes he have some nice trades, recently he bragged about “4 perfect trades in a row”. Well guess what happened next, his next trade hit 70% DRAWDOWN, which is almost equal to BANKRUPT. On his website he’s posting “model portfolio” which is nothing but virtual money. But his subscribers are using REAL money and have real losses. So he started about 2011 claiming that gold is going only higher and higher, when bull market in gold crashed he claimed that its only a correction and bull market will resume with target prices around 2000-3000$. Yes… You know what happened right ?

But even in 2013-2014 he still believed that bull market is still in play ! And he was very confident about it, just check picture below, “i can assure you”, “im sure” etc – he is still using this word to this days. “you will make shitloads of money” etc. But what happened, he lost most of cash in “model portfolio”, leaving his subscribers accounts EMPTY. The he hid this portfolio because he is refusing to admit that he was totally wrong about EACH MARKET in timeframe 2011-2014. Just check his predictions they are public available. He claimed that stock market is going to fall, well what happened ? all time highs… he claimed that dollar is done, and what happened ? multiyear highs. He is still claiming that dollar is done, but dollar is still making new highs almost each day 🙂 And of course – gold, he was totally wrong

So to resume – he was 100% wrong on each market, he lost his subscribers money because of that. So what he did, in 2015 he decided to reset his model portfolio, new balance like never happened. Well his subscribers couldnt do that, their money are gone forever.

FINALLY gold bottomed in 2015 so guess what, Gary is on fire again – gold is going to 4000-5000$ this time! dollar is done ! you’re going to make shitloads of money etc, saaame old story

gold prices went higher, no wonder, after fall from 1900 to 1050 it had to rebound at some point. So it rebounded and Gary FINALLY started to make (virtual) money. Subscribers base started to grow, damn what a good trader, he claimed bull market in gold and it happened (no one checked that he claimed that since 2011). Model portfolio rose from 100000 to 220000 and Gary started to bragging about it, every time someone had other opinion (maybe its not bull etc) he responded like he is smartest trader ever, you dont know nothing, im sure, im 100% sure. Yeah, he was sure in 2012,2013 and 2014 also

But what happened in october 2016, Gary went long in gold at 1330$ of course at heavy leverage (JNUG), his subscribers followed him. What happened ? gold went down like a rock, to 1250$ and Gary’s model portfolio from 220000$ shrinked to 66000 which means -33% from START balance.

So lets resume: his model porftolio lost like 70-80% in previous years, he reseted it (virtual money right) then at the moment he is down AGAIN. And of course he is still claiming that dollar is done, and that gold is going to rise above 1500$ before end of 2016. How this will end ? I just hope that his subscribers will not lost most of their money again..

– he lost 70-80% of cash in 2012-2014
– he hid this like it never happened, just ask him about his previous record – he will ban you or delete your comment
– he lost 70% of cash in ONE trade, so he was DEAD WRONG about gold’s direction but he is STILL acting like trading god

So do you think that this are achievements of good trader ? do you want to PAY him for that ? Think twice. Below you find his “best moments”:

January 2012: If this scenario plays out then we can jettison the deflationary bear market hypothesis and begin positioning for the inflationary scenario which should culminate with a dollar crisis in late 2014. This scenario also has the potential to drive the bubble phase of the gold bull market.
my comment: since then dollar is UP 20% and you know what happened with gold – NICE CALL

April 2012: THE BEGINNING OF THE END (about stock market)
As convincing as this rally has been I am confident this is an ending phase and not the start a new secular bull market.
my comment: this “ending phase” ended with sky rocketing of stock market, SP500 went +60%, another NICE CALL

June 2013: No one even believes that gold will ever see $1900 again, much less many multiples higher than that. Yet gold has now put in place the necessary conditions for a bubble to begin. And all big secular bull markets end in bubbles.Human nature never changes. 
my comment: do i have to comment that ? gold went from 1400 to 1050, “bubble” ? really ?

this is only a small part.. i just want to prove that he was wrong about EACH market. You want more ? check this and dont forget to read all comments:

Also check this blog, MUST READ: especially:

After reading this, are you still willing to pay for Gary’s SMT service (which should be called LMH – Lose Money Hard) ?

BREAKING NEWS: After losing MOST of portfolio in SINGLE TRADE he is doing it AGAIN, Gary deleted his model portfolio in 2016 because he was close to going bankrupt AGAIN. Same situation happened after huge losses in 2011-2014, he deleted portfolio and made new one and guess what, he lost most of it AGAIN. This guy is nothing but MONEY LOSING MACHINE, total amateur which was overconfident about new bull market in gold. He was aggressive against every opposite voice (maybe its not bull ? he was like: you’re stupid IM SURE !) and now we see the truth. Guy knows nothing, cant make money in trading – LOSER OF THE CENTURY – and whats worse, he’s taking money from subscribers for it ! BEWARE


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Comments 14,925

  • Chart of the day OSTK
    Classic tech breakout
    Own 5%

  • Gary blows up his accounts on a regular basis. So take his advice and bank any profits that you have or you will certainly lose it all.

  • Gary,
    Do you think it would be a good idea to put a stop under yesterday’s low in OILD?

    • We could get stopped out multiple times trying to time an entry on this short. All that would accomplish is to wreck the portfolio.
      Just keep the position small like I said so you can weather a drawdown if needed.

  • Hi Gary,
    Happy New year!…
    Two questions:
    1) You have spoken often about a dollar collapse due to all the printing. But as currencies only have meaning against each other (of course gold will zoom…), I don’t see why the dollar should drop vs. the euro. They are printing as well. If everyone prints they all go down vs. commodities, but not each other. Do you feel the U.S. is printing more than others? Our interest rates are higher as well, which should support the buck. Please explain your thinking.
    2) When you suggest 10% as an oil short and use OILD, you are suggesting 30% of the portfolio, right? That is if playing with $100k you can buy $10k of OILD or short $30k of USO, for example. 30% in something as volatile as oil seems like a lot. Am I describing this right?

    • Commonsense would suggest that the dollar should go up. But the chart is saying pretty clear that the dollar isn’t doing that. My stance for awhile now is that fundamentals are meaningless in the currencies. They are like grains of sand on the beach…infinite.
      I think they are controlled by central banks and right now the dollar has been going up for 8 years and Trump wants a lower dollar so the cyclical bull is over no matter what the fundamentals would seem to suggest.
      A 10% position in OILD would be roughly the same as a 30% short in USO.

  • The bitcoin Bubble has not popped.

    Gary’s going to be pissed because he has the “Fear of missing out” sickness.
    Oh, he’ll brag he’s killing it in the stock market but just got on that train after the “Trump Shit Sandwich” election.

  • Attachment C1BA5239-B874-4390-8697-9F2C2C5AA37B

    Woo hoo

  • “Buying at the open:
    100% position in OILD”

    “Just keep the position small like I said so you can weather a drawdown if needed.”

    How is a 100% position in a 3X etf a small position?

  • In reality it’s 300% exposure
    Even @ 10% would take it to an extreme 30%!
    This is how Gary goes broke

  • Dear Mr. Savage , so after FOMC at 1 February you see a 13 % correction in the Nasaq and a 15 % correction in the DOW !!!!!! thats right ? a couple of days ago you only see a mild correction about 2-3 %

    • Keep in mind that the COT isn’t a great timing tool. Many analysts used it as an excuse to miss most of the bull rally.

      • I want to stay fully invested next week, but I’m also going to continue to control greed. It’s just too late in this intermediate cycle for us to take a chance of being leveraged and possibly getting caught if the intermediate cycle tops slightly earlier than we expect. The top should come once the semi’s reach their all-time high at 1422, which isn’t that far away. We could reach that level next week, or during the 1st week of earnings season.

        • By the end of next week the NASDAQ is going to be 23% or higher above its 200 day moving average. I think there’s a very good possibility we get a move down to test that 200 day moving average in February once we get past the FOMC meeting on February 1.

  • A couple? Try for the beginning of the new year.
    WRONG call ……. think about it how that would’ve affected a subscriber who followed that advice.
    Would’ve missed out on from my memory THE best start to any new year.
    Perhaps one may have even took that advice and shorted it for God’s sake.

    This kinda of horrible so called professional advice just makes me cringe.

    It ultimately should be a RED flag anyone who is serious about being a subscriber right???

    • We have a long way to go yet, and once gold confirms the basing pattern is over, then I will begin to increase my recommended allocations in the metals sector. For now though, 20% of your total portfolio is plenty and it will allow traders to sleep at night in this volatile sector. I don’t think it’s unrealistic that we could generate a 200% increase in our JNUG and NUGT positions over the next couple of months. That would be a very nice 20% gain on one’s overall portfolio. There’s nothing wrong with those kind of returns, and there is absolutely no reason to let greed make you think there is. There will be a time for extreme greed in the metals, but I don’t think we need to go there just yet. Right now we need to be prepared to unleash greed in the stock market portfolio at the next ICL.

  • Metals and miners suck the soul out of oneself……. I’m SO glad I’m out of the BS

    First quarter of 2017 did a handful of JNUG to DUST trades ALL profitable and banked them and never looked back.
    Saved me grief with all that whipsaw BS you all like to be involved in ……. NOT for me no thank you.
    YES I missed the latest JNUG run-up but to be very frank, I really don’t give a damn
    Saved me from the stress and worry altogether

    • Dear BlueBear87
      There will be a time for extreme greed in the metals, but I don’t think we need to go there just yet. Right now we need to be prepared to unleash greed in the stock market portfolio at the next ICL.

      • Huh?
        I’ve been holding ALL positions from last year to the present day for maximum exposure to profits
        Forget your foolish lala land hoopla metals dream world.
        ICL as in your still in cash as of last Friday?
        What an amateur

  • Dear Gary,
    The true GREED has come from you. You knew that you were losing money every year and that’s why you deleted your portfolios. You continued to charge your subs for your losing advice because you’re greedy. 2016 was a horrendous year for you, so you deleted the portfolios and then had the audacity to raise your subscription price by 150%. You prey on suckers.

  • I am not a subscriber of SMT but only following Gary’s public blog. I think his analysis are very useful and provides a correct big picture, which I also uses before making a trading decision. I think that in a long term anyone trying to trade leveraged on some daily pattern is looser. But if you try to make longer buy and hold decisions based on his analsis then you can make nice profit on the market.

  • Attachment 1EA3067F-7388-432D-BB81-544244C93BBF

    Don’t get too comfortable with that line of thinking. One of Gary’s biggest downfalls is that for the majority of the time that he’s had his service, his “big picture” analysis has been dead wrong.

    It took Gary five years to admit that stocks were in a bull market. Instead of profiting from the bull market, he was a hardcore gold bull. This theme caused him to lose money every year.

  • Attachment E02BD8F6-4A4B-4D65-AEE4-0E97C22A45E3

    Every year, subs had to hear about how stocks were going to break below the 2009 low. Pathetic.

  • Just joined, Thank you Gary. Will wait to see a pullback next week to buy more gdx. From what I have read seems like I am in a fairly safe trade. Do you think it might be a safe bet to sell when gold is at 1350 to 1360 and then wait for next dcl ?

    • I will probably deleverage the metal portfolio once gold tests the September highs. I won’t go to cash though as it would still be too early in the intermediate cycle for a more significant top.

    • I will probably deleverage the metal portfolio once gold tests the September highs. I won’t go to cash though as it would still be too early in the intermediate cycle for a more significant top…

  • Just read the gold psychology blog post.
    Thanks these reminders help me mentally prepare for the pitfalls you see ahead.
    Once in the midst of what seems a whoosh down, it can be too stomach churning to think rationally unless you’ve already prepared.
    It’s beyond generous to make that stuff public.

  • Gary,
    I’m confused. I assume you are referring to the Equities bubble. If so, I was under the impression that you are looking at a July – August time frame for the COMPQ to reach 10k.
    Also, does this mean that possibly up to 20K for the COMPQ is completely off the table? Or are you expecting a significant correction after hitting ~ 10k, before a possible run at the 20K level?
    Your calls have been incredible Gary. Thank you.

  • I think we’re going to hit 10K this year, probably by summer. 20K-30K is a possibility if the stock bubble behaves like the bitcoin bubble. Notice how quickly bitcoin went from 10K to 20K.

  • Attachment spx 2012

    Gary had the same delusions in 2012. Wishing for that 2009 bottom to crack so he could get in on the bull market that he missed.

  • Attachment gbtc1

    Gary the bubble expert. When Gary said that the bitcoin bubble has popped, bitcoin was below 3000.

  • Attachment quote-those-who-cannot-learn-from-history-are-doomed-to-repeat-it-george-santayana-52-49-24

    SMT doesn’t show portfolio performance prior to Nov 2016 (portfolios were deleted). Look a few years back into Gary’s public and private reports. Don’t get duped like past subscribers.

  • Gary.
    What about quest? We’ve had some nice gains… Would it be wise to keep the trade as is?

    • I’ve gone over this many times.
      The spreads on the Quest trade are huge. We will get killed on the exit and then get killed again on a re entry. Plus we dont’ have a crystal ball. The market may decide to just keep going vertical and we don’t get an ICL. If that were to happen and we exited then we would have just killed our chance to make a huge gain on the Quest trade.
      We have a year for this thing to work. Sit still and let it do so.

  • hi gary
    so would you short the nasdaq? or u are only reducing long exposure? I am new to your website

  • Attachment stock top gold parabola

    Typical top calling in the stock market and gold skyrocketing (Gary 2013).

  • Kicking myself not selling jnug the other day. Its a complete mess. Gold is up when the dollar is up and the yen is up?! And miners are down..

    • Calm down. Miners have many weeks yet to rally. If you think you can time every wiggle you are mistaken. You will only underperform and instead of adding 100% or more to your metal portfolio you will probably end up with less than 50% or nothing.
      If you weren’t able to time every wiggle during the last rally then you aren’t going to do it during this one either.
      If you underperformed during the last rally then learn the lesson and don’t make the same mistake this time.

  • Bubble,
    If you want to hang with Gary, he says that you need to have balls. A 2% down day in JNUG is quite tame. In 2016, Gary and his big balls were riding through 30%+ down days in JNUG. 🙂

  • Can you handle up to 90% drawdowns? If so, SMT is the right service for you. Gary bought JNUG at $96 and repeatedly tried talking subs into holding it while it went to $12 (87% loss).

  • Gary –
    After the next buy we’ll know soon enough whether we’re in the SM melt up phase. The question I have is how will the Fed react when it tops? Will they let the SM bubble collapse 40% as you would normally expect or are they going to try to “save” it with some massive intervention like the Chinese did a couple of years ago when their bubble started to collapse? With an unlimited printing press and 2008 still fresh in everybody’s memory I can’t picture the Fed letting the SM be overwhelmed by natural market movements with massive investor losses.

  • It’s pretty ironic that this repugnant con artist, Gary Savage is allowed to make his comments on this site. How many people have been banned from Gary’s sites for telling the truth? Gary’s filth should not be allowed here.

  • Guys, I apologize for my disastrous calls to buy Silver LEAPs in 2013. They went down 100% like many of my option trades. I also called for the stock market to top hundreds of times over the past 9 years. I am very very sorry for the losses that my subscribers have taken.

    • I don’t have any tools to pick perfect entries in the middle of a cycle.
      You can either focus on the bigger picture and recognize that a perfect entry isn’t possible and just pick a point and buy, or you can try to time a perfect entry and possibly miss the pull back and have to buy into higher prices.

  • Anyone that thinks Gary has been “good with stocks and metals” need to go to the top of this page and read it again. Also, look through all the charts posted in the comment section. You’d have to be blind not to realize that Gary’s been dead wrong for many years. How many years did he call the stock market a “bear market” that was going to crash below the 2009 lows???

  • Attachment Original expectation for bubble phase

    Another stellar call from Gary.

  • Attachment gold-grande-inflation

    How about this nonsense from Gary in 2014.

    • If you ignored my 10% max rule then you are probably not going to be able to hang on if this turns into a DCL. The odds will be high that you will panic and sell at, or close to the bottom. If on the other hand you listened to me and you don’t have more than 10% of your portfolio invested in metals you should be able to hang on even if this does turn into a DCL, and then ride the next wave up.

  • Gary, could you please just clear up some vagueness possibly on why you put a trade on for all of us to get back into QQQ but you yourself will not take that trade?

  • Gary,
    I’m also confused.
    I enter in SMT for several weeks and I thought you follow all changes you made in portfolios.
    I would like to know more just to adjust my strategy.
    Thanks and congratulations for all your good work.

    • That one is easy. Most of you have no business investing like me. I can take much much bigger risk than almost everyone else here. My portfolio is basically just fun for me. I’m just trying to see how much I can leave to my heirs. I have more than enough in my bank account to last me the rest of my life.
      The rest of you need to play the game a lot safer than I do.
      I have everyone in the unleveraged funds just in case the bubble doesn’t give us an ICL. If it does then we’ll convert back to leverage. But either way we aren’t going to take any chances of missing the bubble. Ideally we would ride it in leverage, but we’re going to make damn sure we ride it one way or another.

  • Attachment 9F860D75-E295-42CA-B4C4-14C2BD608E02

    Let me get this straight as of 2018 you said told your subscribers to go in cash to wait out a 4 to 7 day ICL in the US markets on the last trading day of 2017?

    And you told them to short crude around the $61.20 level correct?

    Check his daily blog for confirmation but I’m pretty sure this was said.

    BAD advice especially coming from a paid professional market timer such as yourself.

  • The time to sell our energy position is when sentiment comes back down to 50 or lower.

  • When we get the bubble in gold JNUG will go above 500 easily. That’s still several years away though.

  • Attachment C0DC9D65-4140-426F-83E0-DD6747071475

    We really do not know if this is the real Gary but this is what he writes:
    It doesn’t matter to me in my account. I’ve already made good money on this rally.

    Is this really all about Gary OR is it by his paid subscribers especially those who STILL hold those infamous $96 JNUG calls made by Gary back in August 2016?

    And YES US markets AND crude UP again today.

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